A person holds an Apple iPhone Air during Apple’s “Awe-Dropping” event. Nic Coury/AFP/Getty ImagesNew York —
For the better part of the last decade, sharper cameras, bigger screens and longer battery life have defined annual smartphone upgrades.
But that may no longer be enough to dazzle consumers – at least not in Apple’s opinion.
The company on Tuesday announced the iPhone Air, the first major design overhaul to its flagship product in nearly a decade. An Apple executive described it as being “so thin and light, it seems to disappear in your hands” during the company’s keynote presentation.
The iPhone Air’s debut comes as Apple’s hit product, and smartphones more broadly, are in need of a refresh. The smartphone market has finally rebounded after years of slumping sales, dragged lower in part by a lack of compelling new features. That means consumers are holding onto their smartphones for longer periods of time.
Launch weekend sales of the iPhone 16 in 2024 were estimated to be lower than the previous year, ramping up pressure for Apple to deliver with the iPhone Air and iPhone 17 lineup.
Analysts have been waiting more than a decade for an upgrade “supercycle” like the one Apple experienced more than a decade ago with the iPhone 6, one of Apple’s most successful phones in history.
It’s unclear if the iPhone Air can help Apple deliver that, but some analysts are optimistic that a sleek new iPhone will do more to persuade shoppers to upgrade than the iterative updates of years past. And more importantly, the new device could set the direction for where Apple takes the iPhone next.
“The new iPhone 17 lineup represents the biggest design overhaul since the iPhone X. In itself, this is a strong reason for users to upgrade,” Francisco Jeronimo, an analyst for the International Data Corporation, said Tuesday via email.
Slow smartphone sales
The smartphone market is coming out of a rough patch, with sales seeing their largest ever decline in a single quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022 because of sluggish demand, according to the IDC. Counterpoint Research, another major firm that tracks global smartphone shipments, also reported that the smartphone market saw eight consecutive quarters of decline in 2023.
The situation is different in 2025; sales grew by 1.4% year-over-year in the second quarter of this year according to the IDC, although the report says unemployment, inflation and tariff uncertainty are still hindering demand.
Consumers are indeed holding onto their devices for longer periods of time; Morgan Stanley recently estimated smartphone replacement cycles to be 4.7 years, with the potential for that to extend to five years in 2026. Verizon CEO and chairman told CNBC in 2024 that subscribers were holding onto their phones for “way over 36 months,” which he described as being “very long.”
“We remember when we changed a phone every year,” he said. “That was exciting times.”
People are reflected in an overhead mirror as they gather to purchase new Apple iPhone 15 models in on September 22, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Mario Tama/Getty Images
When people do upgrade, it’s generally out of necessity rather than a desire for new features and technologies, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The firm, which tracks buying habits among US smartphone shoppers, found that 68% of American smartphone buyers upgrade their phone because it needs replacing, because the battery life is too short, or the screen is cracked, for example.
That reality isn’t lost on tech giants, which have been trying to reinvigorate interest in smartphones for years. Samsung launched its first foldable phone in 2019 and said that preorders of its most recent Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip, launched in July, increased by more than 25% compared to the previous model.
Samsung was among the first smartphone makers to release a foldable phone, and since then nearly every major Android player, from Motorola to Google and Chinese tech giants like Oppo, have followed suit.
Apple has yet to release a foldable phone, but it’s spent years preparing for a scenario in which consumers aren’t lining up to buy iPhones anymore by growing its stable of digital services and wearable devices over the past decade. Those segments have provided some buffer to satiate investors during periods of weak iPhone growth; Apple’s digital services division is now its second-largest business behind the iPhone – although recent court battles have challenged Apple’s dominance.
How the iPhone Air could make the iPhone exciting again
For the first time in nearly a decade, Apple is releasing an iPhone that looks and feels substantially different. The iPhone’s appearance changes subtly from year to year, but it hasn’t dramatically shifted since Apple launched the iPhone X in 2017, the first model to feature a larger screen with Face ID instead of the home button.
The iPhone Air, despite its compromises compared to the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro (it only has one camera, for example), could appeal to buyers that want a phone that feels new but don’t care about camera upgrades or larger screens. An iPhone Air hangs during an Apple’s event at the Steve Jobs Theater on its campus in Cupertino, California, on September 9, 2025. Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives cited “bold redesigns” as a factor that could contribute to an uptick in iPhone upgrades over the next 12 to 18 months, he wrote in a research note on Tuesday. He estimates that 315 million of 1.5 billion iPhone global iPhone users haven’t upgraded their device in four years and are due for a refresh.
Analysts at market research firm Forrester also believe the iPhone Air’s bold new design could be enough to spark renewed interest in the iPhone. Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee wrote in an email on Tuesday that the iPhone Air will likely appeal to those who have “been reluctant to upgrade their old models for the lack of a differentiated option.”
The new Air model could also serve as an indication that Apple is rethinking the iPhone’s design more broadly. The focus on slimness could benefit a future foldable iPhone, should Apple ever develop one. Phones that fold in half like the Galaxy Z Fold and Google Pixel Pro Fold are usually thicker than your average phone when closed, sometimes resembling two phones stacked on top of one another. That makes thinness all the more important.
An attendee inspects a new Apple iPhone Air displayed during an Apple special event at Apple headquarters. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
The iPhone Air also includes a new wireless networking chip called the N1 that the company says should improve Wi-Fi and Bluetooth performance. Improving those types of connections could be critical if Apple were to create an iPhone with no ports as reports from Bloomberg have indicated, because such a device would rely solely on wireless connections. The financial news outlet reported in March that Apple could revive efforts to develop an iPhone with no charging ports if the iPhone Air is a hit.
Setting the stage for a more dramatic overhaul could be critical amid mounting speculation that new types of AI devices like smart glasses could one day displace some of the smartphone’s core duties. Meta, Google and Samsung are all investing in smart glasses that can analyze a user’s surroundings and answer questions, while OpenAI is collaborating with former Apple design chief Jony Ive on a mysterious new AI device.
That doesn’t mean the smartphone will go away anytime soon. It’s more likely that the manner in which people use smartphones will change if products like smart glasses gain traction, just as laptops and desktops are still in wide use, even as they shifted away from being the primary way people access the internet in the mobile era.
Apple is aware of that potential transition, with the company’s senior vice president of services Eddy Cue saying “you may not need an iPhone 10 years from now” during his courtroom testimony in the Google search antitrust trial, according to Bloomberg.
The iPhone Air could be a first step toward what an Apple smartphone made for that era looks like.
